How Blinko Blast Points Are Distributed
Why low blast points are common, high ones are rare, and neither predicts who will win.
Low blast points are more common
A common first assumption is that the blast point is drawn evenly between its floor and its cap — that a round is as likely to end at 6000 degrees as at 600. It is not: low thresholds are much more common than high ones.
The blast point comes from a formula applied to a uniform random value, as explained on the fairness page. Call that value u: it is at least 0 and less than 1. The internal value B is 1.85 + 0.95 / (1 − u), bounded between 2.80 and 100.00. Arena heat is B multiplied by 100 and rounded to an integer: B = 2.80 means 280 degrees, not 2.80 degrees.
The division by (1 − u) explains the shape. When u is small, the result is close to the minimum. Large values occur only when u is very close to 1. That is why most blast points are low, with a small number of much higher ones.
The numbers
These rounded figures come from the continuous formula rather than a sample of games. The actual check uses the rounding and encoding of the selected scheme. For an exact round comparison, use the published implementation rather than these summary percentages.
The median blast point is 375 heat degrees. The mean is about 721 degrees, which is nearly twice the median — the signature of a distribution dragged rightward by rare long rounds.
About 17% of blast points fall below 300 degrees. Roughly 70% fall below 500. Around 88% fall below 1000, and about 95% fall below 2000. Fewer than one in a hundred — 0.97% — reaches the 10000-degree cap.
The floor is 280 degrees, so the charge cannot detonate at a lower heat. The cap is 10000 degrees, and thresholds that would have gone further are held there. A cancelled or forfeited round can end without reaching its blast point.
Reading the shape correctly
The median marks the middle of the distribution: half of the thresholds lie on each side. The mean is higher because rare large values pull it upward. Those measures describe different properties, so the average alone does not describe a typical round well.
A few unusually long rounds can dominate a small sample. To understand the expected shape, compare a sufficiently broad set of thresholds with the published distribution instead of relying on the most memorable results.
It is also why a blast at 293 degrees is not evidence of anything being wrong. Low heat is common. Roughly one blast point in six falls below 300 degrees, so low thresholds are an expected part of the distribution.
What the distribution does not tell you
It does not tell you where the next round will end. Each round uses its own inputs, and previous outcomes do not enter the formula. Knowing that about 70% of blast points fall below 500 degrees describes the distribution, not a predictable sequence.
In particular, a run of short rounds does not make a long one due. The draw has no memory of what came before it, and the formula is applied fresh to a new value each time.
It also says nothing about who loses. The blast point determines when the charge detonates; who is holding it at that moment is a matter of how the two of you played. The distribution is the same for both players in every round.
Checking this yourself
To approximate the distribution, take the formula from the algorithm and evaluate many evenly spaced values from 0 up to, but not including, 1. Compare the median, mean and share above each threshold. The singularity at 1 is not a valid input.
To check one completed round, use its exact proof fields and the correct scheme. This reproduces the seed hash and blast-point calculation. It does not independently verify every gameplay event, establish the winner or prove payment. Keep a pre-round commitment if you also want to check later seed substitution.
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Common questions
Where do Blinko blast points usually land?
The distribution is derived from the formula rather than sampled from play: the median blast point is 375 heat degrees, the mean is about 721, around 17% fall below 300, and roughly 0.97% reach the 10000-degree cap. Internal B values are one hundredth of arena heat, not degrees.